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The Future of EU Support for Ukraine: Ensuring Security, Justice, and Peace in a Shifting Transatlantic Landscape
17/09/2025

IEP
IEP

In light of changing transatlantic relations, the EU must rethink its support for Ukraine. Between sanctions, accession prospects and a coalition of the willing, one thing is clear: Europe's determination will decide the future.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has taken numerous measures to support the country. With the granting of candidate status in 2022, Ukraine was given a real prospect of accession. Eighteen packages of sanctions have now been imposed on Russia, with another in preparation. Through the European Peace Facility, the EU is also contributing directly to military defence. Nevertheless, more than three years later, it is clear that these steps are not enough to deter Russia from further aggression. The uncertainty in transatlantic relations since Donald Trump's return to the White House is increasing pressure on the EU to take more responsibility for its own security and the defence of Ukraine.

The Europe Talk took place against the backdrop of the Ukrainian law of 22 July 2025, which placed the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Special Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) under the political supervision of the Prosecutor General. Following public protests and pressure from the EU and the IMF, the independence of the two central anti-corruption authorities was restored by law just one week later. The discussion revealed that continuing the accession process is crucial to maintaining social resilience in Ukraine and that, for the EU itself, the costs of non-integration would outweigh the challenges of accession. At the same time, Ukraine's innovative strength, for example in the defence or IT sectors, could be a great asset to the European Union.

However, domestic political developments in individual Member States and lengthy coordination processes are making it difficult to achieve a unified line. For example, no unanimous decision has yet been reached on opening negotiation chapters in the Ukrainian accession process.

In addition, President Zelensky's recent call to make EU accession a central security guarantee for Ukraine was discussed. While some participants in the discussion considered the mutual assistance clause, Article 42 (7) TEU, to be more reliable than Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, others were more sceptical and pointed to the limited practical effectiveness of the EU mutual assistance clause. From a Baltic perspective, the greatest hope lies in flexible formats such as the coalition of the willing. Here, however, the extent of support again depends heavily on the domestic political dynamics of individual Member States.

One topic that has received only marginal attention in the German debate is the role of law and justice in the context of Russia's war of aggression. Despite massive staff shortages and overburdened courts, Ukraine is currently establishing a judicial system in line with EU standards. At the same time, evidence of Russian war crimes is being collected with the help of EU support and in cooperation with NGOs. The Council of Europe's decision to establish a special tribunal for the crime of aggression was also seen as an important step.

The discussion was attended by Prof. Roman Petrov, holder of the Jean Monnet Chair in EU Law at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Dr Annika Weidemann, Senior Adviser in the Policy Planning and Strategic Foresight Department of the European External Action Service, and Dr Marija Golubeva, Chair of the Baltic Initiative on European Reform. The Europe Talk was opened by Prof. Dr Gwendolyn Sasse, Research Director at the Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS), and moderated by Laura Christoph, Research Fellow at the Institute for European Politics (IEP).

The event took place on 09 September 2025 and was a joint initiative of the Institute for European Politics (IEP), the Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) and the Competence Network for Interdisciplinary Ukraine Studies Frankfurt (Oder) – Berlin (KIU).

Team & authors

About the Europe talks project: The IEP's Europe Talks bring together citizens, decision-makers, academics and civil society to discuss challenges and perspectives on European integration. In this way, they promote the debate on European policy in Germany.

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