Since the end of the Second World War, the USA has been Germany's most important international partner outside the European Union. However, cracks in this relationship began to appear around the turn of the millennium. The opposition of some EU member states to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the criticism of insufficient military spending by European NATO partners, which had already been voiced under President Obama, as well as the failed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), highlighted diverging policy interests in security and trade.
During President Trump's first term in office, the partnership between the USA and Europe became increasingly confrontational. Trump's punitive tariffs on European trade goods, his questioning of NATO and his withdrawal from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accords met with widespread resistance in Europe and intensified calls for strategic autonomy. Under President Biden, relations eased despite the controversially perceived “Inflation Reduction Act” and the tough US stance towards China, a key European trading partner. The re-election of President Trump means another U-turn in view of his election promises to put tariffs on all US imports or the withdrawal of military support for Ukraine.
This volatility in US foreign policy is making transatlantic cooperation more difficult, which seems more important than ever given the major geopolitical challenges of our time.
Against this backdrop, the inaugural meeting of the IEP Strategy Group Berlin Futures took place on December 12, 2024 under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Funda Tekin and Prof. Dr. Gaby Umbach. With the help of strategic foresight methods, high-ranking representatives from public administration, academia, business and civil society examined and discussed possible changes in transatlantic relations in the near future. Two planned follow-up meetings in 2025 will assess their impact on Germany and Europe and develop strategic recommendations for action.
The IEP Strategy Group is chaired by Christoph Wolfrum, Head of the Department for Europe at the Federal Foreign Office, and Prof. Dr. Gaby Umbach, European University Institute.
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