As a result of the 2024 European elections, the European Union has moved to the right. These and other implications are analysed in the free-content article: Manuel Müller takes a comprehensive look at the most important aspects that shaped the election and influenced the political constellations of the new legislative period.
Other articles deal with developments in the last EU legislature: on the one hand, the debt financing of the EU budget through funds such as NextGenerationEU and its possible continuation. Secondly, the social policy of Ursula von der Leyen's last Commission is analysed. The issue also focuses on the EU's foreign policy: while an article analyses the EU's climate soft power using the example of its relations with South Korea, a forum article examines the prerequisites and opportunities of feminist foreign policy as a feasible goal for the EU.
The conference report reflects on the IEP annual conference 2024, where the future of the EU was discussed in terms of its internal challenges, but also its relations with its neighbourhood in the context of enlargement and its position on the international political stage.
The 2024 European election: More than a shift to the right
Manuel Müller
In the 2024 European Parliament elections, far-right parties made gains in many member states and won a higher overall seat share than ever before. In addition, the much discussed “rise of the far right” also changed the debate among the other parties and led to the end of the consensus on the “cordon sanitaire” in the European Parliament. However, the shift to the right was not the only remarkable characteristic of the election. This article provides an overview of the main aspects that marked the election and affected the political constellations of the new electoral period.
The debt financing of Next Generation EU: Here to stay?
Friedrich Heinemann
With NextGenerationEU (NGEU), macroeconomically significant debt has been incurred via the European Union budget for the first time. It is controversial whether this marks the start of continuous EU debt. This article analyses the interests of the Member States and European institutions with regard to a possible perpetuation. The analysis differentiates in accordance with the NGEU structure between EU debt that is used for loans to Member States, for grants to Member States and for EU programs. It shows that the unexpectedly high financing costs of the EU make the first two uses less attractive. The financing costs also speak against the third option, as does the Member States’ focus on reflows and the rather declining consensus on desirable European public goods. The analysis concludes that new EU debt on an NGEU scale is unlikely without the catalyst of an acute crisis.
Temporary revaluation or sustainable reorientation? European social policy under the first von der Leyen Commission
Torben Fischer and Jana Windwehr
In this article, we provide a systematic overview of developments in European social policy under the first von der Leyen Commission. We analyse the developments in the areas of regulatory, distributive and coordinative social policy of the European Union. Building on this, we examine the role of the vdL Commission as a social policy actor by analysing its ability to formulate and implement innovative policies. The analysis shows that the vdL Commission was able to set accents in all areas that have further strengthened the revitalisation of Social Europe begun under the Juncker Commission, with the result of reducing, but not eliminating, the institutional asymmetry between economic and social integration. The vdL Commission proved to be a central actor, albeit supported by a specific political constellation in the COVID-19 pandemic, socially committed Council presidencies and close coordination with European trade union actors.
The European Union as a standardisation entrepreneur in East Asia: Europe's climate soft power in South Korea
Olaf Leiße, Michael Merkel and Levi Schlegtendal
The European Union and South Korea have maintained intensive relations for more than 60 years, which have been institutionalised at a political, economic and security policy level. Both sides are very similar in terms of value orientation, economic system, political system and state capacities and often pursue common interests at a global level. This article examines the hypothesis that the more closely the political systems of the states involved are aligned, their economies are intertwined and political relations are institutionally consolidated, the greater the influence of a more powerful actor will be. Based on the foreign climate policy between the EU and South Korea, it is shown that the EU is able to exert pressure on states beyond its immediate neighbourhood to adapt due to its close trade relations and the institutionalisation of political cooperation. In addition, a climate protection movement modelled on the European model is now emerging at civil society level in South Korea.
A feminist foreign policy for the European Union: requirements and prospects
Claudia Zilla
Over the past decade, an increasing number of states have adopted a feminist foreign policy approach. Cooperation in this area between state, civil society and academic actors is developing very dynamically. Against this background, and in view of a growing awareness of gender and inclusion in the European Union, the theoretical and empirical question is increasingly being raised as to whether a feminist foreign policy can also be a feasible project for the EU. However, this is currently complicated by party-political developments at the level of the EU and its member states, as well as by the growing geopoliticisation of international politics and of the EU itself.
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