integration 02/24

11/07/2024

The prognoses for the 2024 European elections came true: The European Parliament moved towards the political right. What consequences the rightward shift in Europe could have on European politics is analysed in the free content article, which was written before the elections. The forum section examines the mathematical composition of the European Parliament and the basic principle of degressive proportionality. Further contributions are concerned with the promotion of democracy within and outside the EU as well as the EU's data governance in the geopolitical field of tension. The literature section reviews two publications, that deal with political narratives about Europe and European integration. The conference report of the Arbeitskreis Europäische Integration deals with European external relations in times of crisis.

Far-right electoral gains, far-right EU politics? The European Union at a turning point

Thomas Winzen

This contribution analyses possible consequences of the expected gains of far-right parties in the election year of 2024 on the politics of the European Union. It discusses what goals far-right parties pursue and whether they might gain influence because of the elections. The main argument is that far-right parties seek an authoritarian and institutionally fragile EU. Yet, the EU institutions will still have the majorities necessary to design policies without far-right parties. Therefore, the key question is rather how the institutional norms of the EU will develop. Here, the Parliament and the Council face different challenges: Will the cordon sanitaire in the Parliament hold? Should the consensus norm of the Council apply to far-right governments? The Commission must decide whether it should act more proactively against far-right actors and autocratization. In all institutions, continuity is the most likely outcome. However, the cordon sanitaire in the Parliament could come to an end.

Download article (German language)

Democracy promotion in the neighbourhood policy of the European Union: Ambitions, concepts, learning curves

Andrea Gawrich, Fabian Schöppner, Christian Achrainer and Michelle Pace

Even before the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the political model of liberal democracy has been under strong pressure, which is also weakening the EU's global influence. This counteracts the EU's efforts to promote democracy worldwide, especially in the countries of its eastern and southern neighbourhood. Against this background, the Horizon Europe project SHAPEDEM-EU is dedicated to analysing the EU's activities to support democracy in selected countries in both neighbourhoods. Furthermore, it proposes a new analytical concept and – with the help of a broad mix of methods – new approaches to improve democracy support, such as the Democracy Learning Loop. This article presents the current challenges of democracy support policies and introduces basic concepts as well as first explorative results of the work of SHAPEDEM-EU.

Balancing data politics and geopolitics: Analysing the European Union's strategic orientation through the lens of boundary work

Anke Obendiek

Data is increasingly recognized as central in addressing social, political, and economic challenges. This article utilizes the concept of boundary work to illustrate how the European Union advances its strategic interests through data and market control. Specifically, the EU aims to enhance the competitiveness of European companies and address social issues while upholding European values. Through the analysis of three case studies – recent data legislation, the promotion of common European data spaces, and the IPCEI-CIS on cloud edge computing – the article evaluates the effectiveness of EU actions in this complex arena. Consequently, it contributes to the growing literature examining the EU’s evolving role as a geopolitical actor, framing these endeavours as a new form of industrial policy in the data economy.

Political trust in Europe in the context of multi-level structure and polarisation: conceptual considerations

Daniela Braun and Michael Kaeding

European democracy is undergoing profound change. The various crises of the past 15 years and the transformations associated with modernisation, globalisation, geopolitics and Europeanisation are threatening the trust of citizens in political actors and institutions and the legitimacy of the EU multi-level system. This goes hand in hand with the polarisation of European societies. In order to counter these developments, the problems of trust and legitimacy must be better researched. This is where the ActEU research project “Towards a new era of representative democracy. Activating European Citizens’ Trust in Times of Crises and Polarisation” comes in. This article provides an overview of the underlying conceptual considerations of the Horizon Europe project.

Composition of the European Parliament and degressive representation

Friedrich Pukelsheim

To date, there is no set procedure for the allocation of seats in the European Parliament. On a meeting of the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) in February 2024, the establishment of a permanent system was addressed based on three proposals: the Power Compromise, the FPS Technique, and the Proportional Completion. This note reviews the criteria of Union law that must be observed and sketches the three proposals. As for the 2024–2029 parliament, the Power Compromise and the FPS Technique would generate allocations that are almost identical with the ad hoc composition decreed by the European Council in September 2023. The system of Proportional Completion allows for the introduction of transnational lists and thus would call for a comprehensive amendment of the European Electoral Act.