As EU accession talks with Montenegro, Ukraine, and Moldova accelerate, assessing rule of law performance and designing effective conditionality mechanisms remain central to enlargement policy. Against this backdrop, the newly launched RESILIO-ACCESS Monitor aims to support evidence-based policymaking and research on democratic resilience.
In his keynote speech, John Morijn highlighted the practical relevance of the RESILIO-ACCESS project for EU accession processes, drawing on his experience with the GIZ Ukraine “3E” programme. Using the metaphor of two “pizzas” -- one representing the EU acquis chapters and the other the RESILIO-ACCESS model --he explained how institutional resilience, democratic governance, and societal conditions overlap in accession policy. He stressed that although all accession criteria are formally binding, the EU places particular emphasis on judicial independence, anti-corruption measures, media freedom, and institutional impartiality. In the case of Ukraine, Morijn emphasised that Russia’s full-scale invasion and the ongoing state of emergency fundamentally shape the democratic environment, while expressing confidence in Ukraine’s long-term resilience.
Morijn also argued that democratic resilience cannot be understood through institutions alone. Referring to developments in Hungary and Poland, he noted that civil society and media landscapes are equally important. As such, the RESILIO-ACCESS model provides added value by illustrating the interconnectedness of institutional and societal factors shaping rule of law resilience. Preliminary findings for the period between 2014 and 2024 show that Montenegro and Georgia perform comparatively strongly, while Türkiye remains a significant outlier on the lower end of the spectrum.
Based on the preliminary results, the most important drivers of institutional resilience are low corruption, effective regulatory enforcement, and strong criminal and civil justice systems. On the societal level, electoral democracy and academic freedom proved especially influential. Some countries, including Moldova, Kosovo, and Georgia, appear to “overperform” relative to their broader democratic environment.
The newly launched RESILIO-ACCESS visualisation tool enables users to compare accession countries with EU averages, analyse resilience indicators, and explore projections showing how resilience capacity could improve by closing gaps with EU benchmarks.
The event “Breakfast Briefing – Data on the Rule of Law and EU Enlargement”, which took place online on 13 May 2026, opened with a keynote speech by John Morijn, showcased the newly launched RESILIO-ACCESS Monitor that empirically measures the capacity and performance of the rule of law and facilitates evidence-based enlargement policy. Speakers included York Albrecht and Misha Popovikj, with Maria Skóra moderating. A recording of the event is available and can be accessed here:
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