Turkey remains a politically relevant actor whose strategic importance has grown since Russia’s war against Ukraine. While the EU and Turkey have long-standing ties, their relationship requires substantial rethinking. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine placed Turkey in a unique position between confrontation and cooperation with Russia. Its role as a power broker has strengthened Turkey’s regional agency and highlighted the limits of EU influence over Ankara’s geopolitical behaviour.
The findings show that Turkey’s influence is neither uniformly benign nor overtly antagonistic, but shaped by local receptivity, institutional interest, and historical or cultural proximity. Unlike coercive actors, Turkey typically avoids direct confrontation with the EU, opting instead for relational diplomacy, targeted investments, and long-term societal engagement.
Political influence has grown modestly, driven by high-level visits, security cooperation, and elite alignment—especially in Kosovo, Ukraine, and North Macedonia. Economic influence has expanded more steadily, fuelled by concessional loans, preferential trade agreements, and infrastructure projects. However, macroeconomic instability in Turkey casts doubt on the long-term sustainability of this outreach. Societal influence emerges as the most persistent and embedded dimension. Through cultural diplomacy, religious networks, educational initiatives, and media presence—including popular Turkish TV series—Turkey has cultivated durable societal linkages, particularly in Muslim-majority areas of the Western Balkans.
The study, authored by Marko Todorovic (European Policy Centre) and based on the InvigoratEU novel foreign interference index, calls for a more realistic and interest-driven EU approach — one that acknowledges both Turkey’s strategic relevance and the structural limits of EU leverage. It offers policy recommendations on how the EU can re-engage Turkey in selected policy fields while addressing democratic backsliding and geopolitical divergences.
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