How strong is Russian influence in the Eastern Partnership countries (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine) and the countries of the Western Balkan (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia)? Does the development of Russian influence differ in specific areas? This study examines developments over the past decade using a newly developed analytical tool: the InvigoratEU External Influence Index. Covering the soft power dimensions of political, economic and societal foreign interference, this empirical instrument enables a systematic measurement and comparison of shifts of third country influence between 2013 and 2023.
The findings for Russian interference in the EU neighbourhood reveal a general decline in its political and economic leverage – driven by energy diversification and political distancing following the war against Ukraine. At the same time, societal influence remains resilient, sustained through media, religious networks, and ideological narratives. The study highlights the urgent need for a coordinated EU response to reinforce reform efforts, counter disinformation, and enhance resilience against external pressure. Gradual integration, strategic infrastructure investments, and tailored communication efforts are key levers to sustainably reduce Moscow’s remaining influence in the region.
Read the complete InvigoratEU Long Policy Report on Russian interference in the EU candidate countries here:
InvigoratEU Long Policy Report on Russia's Ambitions and Leverage
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