How strong is China's influence in the candidate countries in the East (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine) and on the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia)? How does this influence vary in different areas? This study examines developments over the past ten years using a newly developed analytical tool: the InvigoratEU External Influence Index. This empirical tool systematically measures changes in external influence in the political, economic, and social spheres between 2013 and 2023.
The results show that China pursues a flexible, pragmatic, and highly context-dependent approach. It focuses primarily on bilateral relations and offers an alternative to the EU's liberal-democratic model through infrastructure investments, soft power, and diplomatic engagement. The strength of these relations, and of Chinese influence, varies greatly across both regions and is concentrated in a few countries (especially Serbia). Overall, China's influence is increasing over the analysis period, but remains highly fragmented. Beijing acts less as a direct challenger to Brussels or Washington and more as a strategic opportunist. To effectively address these challenges, the EU should adopt a more strategic, targeted, and, above all, country-specific approach to minimize points of attack for Chinese influence.
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