The InvigoratEU policy paper outlines three scenarios for the development of external influences by Russia, China, and Turkey in the Western Balkan and Eastern Neighbourhood countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, and Ukraine) over the next ten years and provides specific recommendations to the EU and these countries on how to counter the identified influences.
The first scenario, “Great-Power Chessboard,” is characterized by increased external influence and a weakened interaction between the credibility of an EU enlargement perspective and national alignment with reform and integration commitments, the so-called EU anchoring. In the second scenario, “Resilient Europe,” credible EU commitment to enlargement, gradual integration of candidates, and domestic reforms reduce their vulnerability to external influences. The third scenario “Strategic Tug-of-War”, exemplifiying the status quo, is characterized by ongoing hybrid competition and partial anchoring of the EU.
The policy paper shows that external influences are not predetermined by geopolitical factors. Their development depends on the EU's ability to govern, the resilience of society, and the credibility of its engagement. While Russia's influence is particularly volatile and marked by uncertainties due to its war of aggression against Ukraine, the influence of China and Turkey is developing more steadily within the structural conditions determined by the EU's political decisions and the domestic political conditions in the candidate countries. To limit destabilizing external influences and strengthen long-term stability in the EU candidate countries, the most effective strategy remains to better anchor the EU through credible enlargement prospects, gradual integration, and sustained support for governance and societal resilience.
The policy paper is available here:
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