The German-Hungarian Expert Meeting 2018: “Germany and Hungary in the EU-27”
These are difficult times for German-Hungarian relations. The illiberal democracy of Orbán and the harsh tone on the international scene make political contacts increasingly cold. Moreover, there seems to be a lack of a common value base, which is fundamental to closer cooperation between the two governments, including at European level. The participants of the conference call for more understanding and empathy on both sides. At the same time they see only a few areas where a deeper German-Hungarian cooperation could be possible.
Over two days and three panel discussions, representatives from politics, administration and science devoted themselves to German-Hungarian relations in the context of current challenges within and outside the European Union.
Mutual mistrust and a lack of common value base
When discussing the bilateral relations, the participants acknowledged a deep cultural and economic connection between the two countries. Cooperation is well functioning at the administrative level. However, the negative developments of recent years in government relations between the two countries, which are no longer based on a common value basis, can not be dismissed out of hand. At present, closer cooperation has been offset by tactical nationalism and the pursuit of an illiberal democracy by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Researchers raised the question to what extent an illiberal democracy is actually possible. The creation of political stereotypes by the Fidesz government seems not to be conducive as well. For example, the European Commission has recently been portrayed as the enemy of the Hungarian people. At the same time, it became clear that misunderstandings and lack of empathy burdened relationships. Thus, the wounds that socialism inflicted on the Hungarians were often ignored by the West. Mutual understanding of each other’s backgrounds and needs is therefore essential for improving bilateral relations.
In contrast to Germany, Hungary shows little willingness to compromise on EU reforms, and intra-European centrifugal forces threaten to further slow down the reform process.
As for to the reform options of the EU-27, the centrifugal forces within Europe have been identified as a major hurdle that might lead to a Europe of different speeds and further diversion of Member States. These developments could also make the Hungarian government to step on the brakes when it comes to major European projects. As a result, German-Hungarian government cooperation at the European level is by and large limited. Apart from reforms in the Eurozone, the Hungarian government shows unwillingness to compromise. The idea of adoption of the refugee reception quotas by majority vote was discussed controversially. Here, the skeptical voices predominated. The Common European Asylum Policy is one of the fields in which the experts do not recognize the willingness of the Hungarian Government to compromise. A bit unclear was the discussion round regarding sanctions against the Member State Hungary due to violations of the rule of law under Article 7 TEU.
German and Hungarian government interests diverge rapidly. Experts see potential for closer cooperation in just a few foreign policy issues.
Until a few years ago, the German government was an important reference point for Hungarian foreign policy. However, the Hungarian government is currently on a course of confrontation with Germany. This becomes clear especially with regard to the migration issue and the Ukraine crisis. With regard to the current veto-politics of the Hungarian Government at the European level, a blockade of Russian sanctions would constitute a red line that, if exceeded, would isolate Hungary in the European Community. While the discussants agreed that Hungary would probably support the prolongation of the Russian sanctions in December 2018, the vote was unanimous as to whether this would be the case if other Member States, such as Italy, voted against the sanctions. In the EU enlargement policy, in which Hungary played an important and active role for many years, especially in the Western Balkans, the Hungarian government tends to withdraw. In this region, therefore, Hungary no longer represents a reliable partner for the Federal Government. Nevertheless, there are common interests, for example with regard to border protection and combating the causes for migration and flight. Closer cooperation, however, could be opposed by the different approaches of governments.
By mutual agreement, the participants reaffirmed the need to continue the dialogue. The communication between Germany and Hungary should not break even in difficult times. The expert meeting, which was held thanks to the support of the Thuringian State Chancellery and the Foreign Office, was characterized by a constructive dialogue and lively discussions both during informal parts and during the evening reception by the Thuringian Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow. Thus, the German-Hungarian Expert Meeting contributed to the mutual positions’ understanding through its informed and scientifically based exchange.
Author: Jan-Hendrik Rohlfs